Money Wheel

  

MONEY WHEEL Fun, exciting, and easy to play, the Money Wheel is a great game for first time casino players and remains a thrilling experience for experienced gamers. The Money Wheel is played with a wheel, whose rim is divided, by means of pegs, into 52 equally spaced sections. Money Prize Wheel With Stand & Base. Prize Wheel Nylon Carry Bag. Prize Wheel Universal Flapper. Flapper (Clicker) Prize Wheel Bolt. Prize Wheel 1/4 Inch Pins With Vinyl Tip, Washers & Lock Nut. Prize Wheel Hub Assembly.

Introduction

The Money Wheel was launched at the Jackpot Casino in Red Deer, Alberta, in June 2011. It is a variation of Big Six, which is the game with the large vertical wheel, usually found near the entrance of casinos and usually dealt by an attractive female dealer. What makes the Money Wheel different is 56 stops instead of 54, and some of them are multipliers. The house edge is also much lower than Big Six, as my analysis below will show.

Rules

  1. The player may bet on $1, $2, $5, $10, $20, or $40.
  2. All bets are paid on a to one basis according to the odds of the bet itself. For example, a bet on $5 would pay 5 to 1.
  3. Four positions on the wheel will multiply any win, known as a Lucky Lucky. Two Lucky Lucky spots multiply the next win by 2x, one 3x, and one 5x. If Lucky Lucky sounds familiar, it is because Lucky Lucky is also a blackjack side bet, both invented by the owner of the Jackpot Casino.
  4. If the wheel stops in any Lucky Lucky, then all bets will remain in place. No new bets will be allowed. The outcome of the next spin will determine the winning wager, as usual, but the odds will be multiplied by 2, 3, or 5, depending on which Lucky Lucky the wheel stopped in the previous spin.
  5. In the event the wheel stops in a Lucky Lucky twice in a row, then all wagers will lose.
  6. The following table shows how the wheel is apportioned.

Let's look at an example. The player bet $20 on the $5 spot. The wheel lands in the 3x Lucky Lucky. The next spin it lands in $5. The player would win $20×$5×3=$300.

Money Wheel Distribution

Money
StopNumber on Wheel
$123
$215
$57
$104
$202
$401
2x Multiplier2
3x Multiplier1
5x Multiplier1

Analysis

The following table shows the possible outcomes for the $1 bet. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 6.12%.

$1 Bet Analysis

EventPaysCombinationsProbabilityReturn
5x Lucky Lucky win5230.0073340.036671
3x Lucky Lucky win3230.0073340.022003
2x Lucky Lucky win2460.0146680.029337
Standard win112880.4107140.410714
Loss-117560.559949-0.559949
Total31361.000000-0.061224

The following table shows the possible outcomes for the $2 bet. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 6.25%.

$2 Bet Analysis

EventPaysCombinationsProbabilityReturn
5x Lucky Lucky win10150.0047830.047832
3x Lucky Lucky win6150.0047830.028699
2x Lucky Lucky win4300.0095660.038265
Standard win28400.2678570.535714
Loss-122360.713010-0.713010
Total31361.000000-0.062500

The following table shows the possible outcomes for the $5 bet. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 10.71%.

$5 Bet Analysis

EventPaysCombinationsProbabilityReturn
5x Lucky Lucky win2570.0022320.055804
3x Lucky Lucky win1570.0022320.033482
2x Lucky Lucky win10140.0044640.044643
Standard win53920.1250000.625000
Loss-127160.866071-0.866071
Total31361.000000-0.107143

The following table shows the possible outcomes for the $10 bet. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 5.61%.

$10 Bet Analysis

EventPaysCombinationsProbabilityReturn
5x Lucky Lucky win5040.0012760.063776
3x Lucky Lucky win3040.0012760.038265
2x Lucky Lucky win2080.0025510.051020
Standard win102240.0714290.714286
Loss-128960.923469-0.923469
Total31361.000000-0.056122
Money Wheel

The following table shows the possible outcomes for the $20 bet. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 9.44%.

$20 Bet Analysis

EventPaysCombinationsProbabilityReturn
5x Lucky Lucky win10020.0006380.063776
3x Lucky Lucky win6020.0006380.038265
2x Lucky Lucky win4040.0012760.051020
Standard win201120.0357140.714286
Loss-130160.961735-0.961735
Total31361.000000-0.094388

The following table shows the possible outcomes for the $40 bet. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 11.35%.

$40 Bet Analysis

EventPaysCombinationsProbabilityReturn
5x Lucky Lucky win20010.0003190.063776
3x Lucky Lucky win12010.0003190.038265
2x Lucky Lucky win8020.0006380.051020
Standard win40560.0178570.714286
Loss-130760.980867-0.980867
Total31361.000000-0.113520

Strategy

The lowest house edge is on the $10 at 5.61%. My advice is to bet on that only.

Comparison to Big Six

The following table compares the Money Wheel to four versions of Big Six, also known as the Wheel of Fortune. As you can see, the average house edge is much lower on the Money Wheel compared to American Big Six. You would have to go to Australia to get a better average bet on a vertical wheel. The best single bet anywhere, including Australia, is the $10 at 5.61% house edge on the Money Wheel.

Money Wheel to Big Six Comparison

BetMoney WheelBig Six
Las Vegas
Big Six
Atlantic City
MacauAustralia
$16.12%11.11%11.11%7.69%7.69%
$26.25%16.67%16.67%
$37.69%7.69%
$510.71%22.22%22.22%7.69%7.69%
$105.61%18.52%18.52%15.38%
$117.69%
$209.44%22.22%22.22%19.23%
$237.69%
$4011.35%24.07%
$4514.81%11.54%
$477.69%
Average8.25%19.14%17.59%11.54%7.69%

Written by: Michael Shackleford

The Wheel Strategy is a systematic and very powerful way to sell covered calls as part of a long-term trading strategy.

The process starts with a selling a cash secured put. The investor also needs to be willing, and have the funds available to purchase 200 shares.

After selling the initial put, the put either expires or is assigned. If it expires, they keep the premium and start again if they are still bullish on the stock, or they move on to another stock. If they are assigned, they take ownership of 100 shares.

At this point they sell a call to turn it into a covered call and they also sell a new put.

From here, if the stock goes up through your call, you are assigned and the stock is called away leaving you flat. As the stock went up, your sold put expires worthless.

If the stock goes down, you are assigned on the second put, and you now have your full allocation of 200 shares. As the stock went down, the call expires worthless.

Now that you own 200 shares, you sell two calls.

If the stock goes up through the calls, the stock is called away and your position is flat again.

Through the process you have collected 5 option premiums, plus any dividends while holding the shares, plus potentially some capital gains, depending at which strikes you sold the calls and puts.

If the stock continues down, you can continue to sell 2 covered calls each month.

This process is best explained in the following diagram:

This is just the theory of course, and in practice, things don’t always work out so smoothly.

One trap investors can fall in to is continuing to hold on to shares as the stock falls due to the attraction of generating option premium.

Stop losses are important. Have a think how this strategy would have performed on a stock like Lehman Brothers during the Financial Crisis.

If a stock has dropped 10%, it might be time to cut and run. You don’t want to keep adding to a losing position by buying more shares. In this case what can happen is that you end up selling calls for less than your cost basis, meaning that even if your stock goes up through your calls, you are still left with a loss.

Here are some things you might want to consider when looking at this strategy:

  • Sell the first put when implied volatility is in the higher end of the 6-month range
  • Wait for a 5% pullback before selling the first put
  • Place a stop loss 10-15% below where the stock was trading when the put was first sold
  • Adjust your stop loss lower when multiple puts have expired worthless
  • Will you sell the first put slightly out-of-the-money or at-the-money?
  • Will you sell the calls slightly out-of-the-money or at-the-money?
  • Sell the first put when RSI is below 30
  • Stick to low beta, high dividend stocks. Think of stocks you would be happy to own in your retirement account
  • You can also use this strategy on ETF’s to reduce the bankruptcy risk
  • If the stock continues to fall, it’s ok to sell a call below cost only if you have received enough put premiums to offset the cost basis
  • If you have sold numerous puts, your actual cost basis can be very low

THEORETICAL EXAMPLE

Let’s look at a theoretical example to see exactly how the strategy works and then I’ll share some trades from my own account.

In April, 2014 JNJ was trading at $98.

We start by selling a June $95 put for $1.50.

JNJ then falls below $95; we are assigned on the put and take ownership of 100 shares with a cost basis of $93.50 (95 less the 1.50 option premium).

Now we sell an October $97.50 Call for $1.50 and an October $90 Put for $1.50.

So far we have received a total of $450 in option premium (3 x $150) and we have paid $9,500 for the 100 shares. The cost basis is $9,050 or $90.50 per share.

As October expiry, JNJ falls below $90. We are assigned on another 100 shares at $90.

We now sell two January $95 calls for $1.50.

We have been assigned on the shares at $95 and $90 totaling $18,500.

We’ve received 5 x $150 in premium from call and put sales.

Our net cost basis is $17,750 or $88.75 per share.

If JNJ is below $95 at January expiry, we sell two more calls and continue to collect the dividends.

If JNJ is above $95, our 200 shares are called away leaving our position flat. The total profit is $95 – $88.75 x 200 = $1,250.

Not bad for a stock that has fallen from $98 to $95 over the course of the trade.

TWO REAL TRADE EXAMPLES

Scam

The following is an example that I like to share with coaching clients. It’s a good example because it occurred during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. On a stock that dropped 42%, I made a profit of $1,440.

Money Wheel Pic

However, I was lucky, and at one point I was in a pretty big hole. Realistically I should have been stopped out of the trade in mid to late 2008 but I stuck with it and rode it out. If someone tried this on Bear Sterns, Lehman Brothers or AIG, they wouldn’t have been so lucky.

Here is the trade history. You can see that I started the trade via a covered call on GE when it was trading at $31.98.

Over the course of the trade I bought stock as follows:

100 shares at $31.78 in April 2008

100 shares at $26.57 in July 2008 average cost now $29.18

200 shares at $8.95 in February 2009 average cost now $19.06

200 share at $16.00 in December 2009 average cost now $18.04

In total I generated $981.28 in option premiums after commissions and received $342.30 in dividends after tax.

To close the trade, I ended up buying back the $18 calls in December 2010 and selling the shares for $18.32.

All up the trade made a profit of $1,440 while the stock declined by 42% over the course of the trade.

Even though I’ll freely admit the trade wasn’t managed very well, you can see how powerful this strategy can be.

Here is another trade example that worked out a little more smoothly than the GE trade.

You can see that in this case, EWZ rose by 6.03% over the course of the trade.

The profit on the wheel trade was $438 on capital at risk of $6,200 which equates to a 7.08% return.

Carnival / Prize Wheels With Stand | AmericanGamingSupply

The wheel strategy is a really powerful income strategy that can enhance your long-term returns. There are risks and it’s important that investors are careful not to get sucked in to averaging down on losers.

Casino Prize Wheel

Wheel trades can be very straight forward as we saw in the EWZ example, or they can be very painful and tie up capital for a long time as we saw in the GE trade.

Casino Money Wheels For Sale

What do you think about this strategy? Let me know in the comments below.